Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
